Fundamentals: economic restructuring Cube: a crucial year
capital: the rural market a commercial focus
VC / PE: RMB funds into the modern service industry
Finance: the introduction of electronic payment policy
Real Estate: Real Estate Business Transformation br> Consumer electronics: the first year of free terminal
Internet: the universal application of micro-Bo into Internet
Entertainment: br> multi-dimensional transformation of the Chinese economy has brought many uncertainties and opportunities, but the credit crunch and the possibility of asset bubbles will test out the truly outstanding enterprises.
mm now facing multiple transition, the state has issued a nine regional development planning, 11 industrial revitalization plan, coupled with the grand goal of urbanization, which indicates that the Chinese economy in 2010 from the industrial structure, regional structure and three dimensions of urban and rural structure and began to adjust, just like Rubik's Cube, as no one can expect changes in these three dimensions are intertwined permutations and combinations, there will be what happens. but this adjustment would be added to three restrictions mm2020 carbon emissions per unit of GDP than in 2005 decreased by 40% to 45% of domestic demand as well as the dollar started. overall economic performance requires huge investment and excess capacity, security and sustainable growth, credit expansion and inflation and other major conflicts are expected to maintain a balance between the degree of difficulty can be imagined.
And if turning up the puzzle, but also cause many other aspects of the chain reaction. such as economic restructuring of the financial system's efficiency and ability to allocate resources put forward higher requirements (infrastructure and manufacturing to the industrial structure, the requirements of the financial industry is not high. The data show that since 1987, the ratio of the size of credit and GDP growth rate is negative correlation), urbanization will lead to public security system, rural land and even the central and local fiscal reform, government restructuring and a series of important issues.
So in the end of 2009, there is a word mm In an article on the macroeconomic situation, such as We already know the challenges mm target, but the path is not clear, could only find a way out from the results reverse.
Since 1978, several proposed restructuring of China's economic goals, such as in 1978, mention of the The long road.
For businesses, the biggest risk is that in 2010 the credit contraction and asset price bubbles. can be expected, although the economic transformation has been launched Rubik's Cube, but the short term the economy will be the main driving force is investment. the central economic conference has repeatedly emphasized that New both to positive growth, but also seriously enough.
From another perspective, the state's 4 trillion yuan investment in the huge liquidity into the market, along with economic recovery, many companies are hold hands a lot of money. many opportunities in transition, and the temptation of the dual role of inflationary pressures, industrial and financial capital are filled with the investment impulse, the name of
In fact, global, macroeconomic management has been the main contradiction in the assets from the general inflation rate for the bubble (in the past inflation, the environmental economy is a shortage of production capacity, and now the world is facing overcapacity surplus economy times, excess capacity can wash away a great inflation pressure). this time, what kind of price to put their money on a piece of assets, how to integrate it, in the next few years or even longer see results. We can put this in two years, business investment in the assets of Chinese companies as strategic vision and ability to execute a final exam. To be sure, some companies will take this opportunity to soar, while some companies will over the asset price bubble burst and depressed or even disappear. The College Entrance Examination results will affect in a very long time the pattern of China's economic future.
2010 years of Chinese history is destined to leave in a thick.
capital
rural market a commercial focus of the gate opening
rural land, will cause a range of business opportunities.
is a contract, 30 years later, the reform of rural land transfer is the popular vocabulary.
called the land transfer, refers to the transfer of land use rights, the right of ownership of land contract and management rights of farmers to land management (the right to use ) transferred to other farmers or economic organizations, which reserves the right to contract, the transfer of use rights. transfer form is divided into sub-contract, lease, exchange, transfer, share cooperation.
In fact, the rural land just before the a continuation of the policies, and no real innovation, and why in 2008 the Third Plenary Session of the speed so quickly after it?
Chinese People's University Associate Dean of Agriculture and Rural Development accepting Kong Xiangzhi people. Accordingly projections, China has more than 100 million households, each household has at least one labor overseas workers, which resulted in an objective out of the strong demand for land transfer. In addition, the scale of farming can also have a greater need to expand economic benefits, the objective of the land transfer has played a catalytic role. Second, the stability of the national policy that the farmers, due to Transfer of land area has reached 1.06 million mu, accounting for all the family contracted 8.7% in the area, the end of 2009 is expected to reach about 13%. rural land has been the general trend of the.
implementation of rural land, not only more and more farmers off the land, to the city, and this will lead to more capital and external forces into the countryside, to change the traditional mode of agricultural production. This is the long-term depression in the rural capital is no doubt cast a Therefore, the rural market is destined to become a longer period of 2010 and a new focus within the business areas.
First, the nature of land transfer to integrate small pieces of land, smaller household operations to large operations, the concentration of land is also nature of things, most likely out of production in 2010, This in itself is also a response to the inevitable trend of agricultural development. smallholder cultivation methods can not meet the scale of agriculture, standardization, mechanization, can not meet the demand for high-quality agricultural products. Now is different, the emergence of agricultural integrators, also remain in the original concept and new agricultural on the surface may have become a reality, not only that, the new rate of return on investment in agriculture is actually much higher. The so-called new agricultural or organic agriculture, green agriculture, ecological agriculture, leisure agriculture and other forms .
In fact, from another angle to look at the land transfer, it means that the increase of farmers income sources. Following this, the potential of the rural consumer market is worth mining, the home appliances from the 2009 perspective, the rural consumption market potential is huge. If we take into account the intensity of home appliances in 2010 will increase, the potential of the rural consumer market will be further tapped. Obviously, to tap the rural consumer is not just appliances, if we further take into account the household registration system reform, the construction of small towns has been a natural thing. will the real estate market will generate significant leveraging effect.
any changes in economic variables are the start of business opportunities. For such a big land transfer variable will certainly generate more business opportunities, the rural market in 2010 business opportunities include:
most upstream resource-based enterprises will be good. This includes seed production companies, biotechnology companies and so on, which is in agricultural production The most upstream land transfer to these companies tremendous opportunities for industry; followed by significant increase in business opportunities in agricultural processing, providing high-quality agricultural products planted upstream, downstream processing enterprises for further processing to enhance the industry has brought great value opportunities.
supermarket chains in rural development is about to encounter the outbreak period. With the small towns of the accelerated development of supermarket chains will usher in a new period of development, consumption, construction of the terminal building and the channel will be a lot of business in 2010 The focus of contention.
In addition, the development of rural tourism could become a new force. At present, the scale of leisure travel in rural areas is generally small, but the size of this market has more than 400 billion the size of some rural gathering 70% of the tourism resources, and the two golden weeks each year, travel choice of urban residents in the proportion of rural tourism accounts for about 70%, the formation of each of Golden Week, about 6,000 million people in the rural tourism market, tourism industry rural tourism has become the new growth. This is bound to bring a range of industries, such as hotels, restaurants, souvenir industries.
any case, the implementation of land transfer in 2010 indicates that in rural areas will become an important direction of capital flows. < br> VC
RMB funds into the modern service industry
Foundation unprecedented outbreak of RMB investment, and focus on investment in modern service industry as the main direction.
RMB will continue to heat up the topic of the Fund.
Research Center, according to Qing dynasties report shows the first 11 months of 2009 raised 90 new funds, fund a total of 82 yuan, accounting for 91.1%, while foreign currency funds 8 only. From the point of view the amount of fund-raising, fund-raising amount of RMB funds $ 3,531,000,000, representing 69.4% of the total, the amount of foreign currency the Fund Prospectus only 30.6% of total fund-raising. RMB funds rise of the trend is obvious.
mm No doubt, with the domestic IPO since 2009, and the GEM of the gate opening to restart the RMB fund has the advantage of the exit channel. market participants which have started to adjust strategies, in addition to local capital in large numbers, many are raising foreign currency funds RMB funds to adapt to market changes. though it looked like water from the wind, but the senior partner and the benefits of capital-week-old Ren said, capital market can not meet the needs of start-ups, but bubble has already started. Triumph Ventures founding managing partner Zhou said: Although ultimately not sustainable, but still will remain for some time. can be expected that in 2010, the number of RMB funds will therefore continue to expand. Most of the amount of funds is not new, at 1 billion yuan; old fund size will be increasingly large amount of fund-raising fund similar to the U.S. dollar (U.S. funds are largely on the market size of 100 million -2 million). As the project Pre-IPO is still getting a fierce, prices are getting higher and higher corporate finance, so began to diversify investment of RMB fund will invest in a relatively early stage of the case appears and funds.
easy to see that the first batch of RMB funds invest in very conservative GEM, through the to ensure the security of funds. But with the GEM model of innovation will have preference in 2010 to diversify the investment pattern will be, especially the production of commodities and goods, while services to individuals and markets the industry.'s most sought-including e-commerce, online games, branded consumer, financial services, energy services and other industries.
perhaps because of the low threshold, light assets characteristics, combined with the Chinese consumer's habits on the Internet has been formed, the development of e-commerce in full swing this year. The data show that in 2009 the entire e-commerce transactions of more than 2,000 billion yuan, is 1% of retail sales of Chinese society. More and more popular sites are beginning to get involved in e-commerce or e-commerce cooperation. either from the content, services, products, brands, e-commerce in China are standing in a very wide track, a few times on the growth, whether it is generated around the B2C, or a variety of services surrounding a great opportunity. and e-commerce is different is that the opportunity lies in the online gaming industry will be born out of more innovative models. Wheelock gold investment partner Jackie Li Song Bo said: enterprises can obtain a large number of users at no cost, this is the future innovative online game company into the market means. the scale of 80 billion yuan.
In addition, financial services is the focus. As for some state-controlled foreign funds, it is difficult to enter the financial industry, no doubt to the advantage of RMB funds has brought the industry. Mr Liu, chairman of CITIC Industrial Investment, says: the same time, China's financial reform should also be just the beginning, the whole future development of the financial or opportunity I think very much. the introduction of electronic payment policies of financial
really clear policy or electronic payment will be issued in 2010, and its primary role is to
IResearch data, the electronic payment market in China in 2009 will reach nearly 600 billion yuan.
outbreak is not only a market, there are number of electronic payments company. payment services is a very basic services, involving people's livelihood and almost all industries, and in every single industry, there may contain a billion or even one hundred billion market. coupled with the rapid popularization of the Internet in the country, which makes it particularly from 2008 onwards, there have been hundreds of dollars to pay for each vertical industry companies.
particularity of electronic payments is that, even if it is a head of very significant market, any payment service providers can not cover all the areas have advantages mm because of the different payment scenarios in which to pay the required behavior of the flow pattern has changed greatly, the small third-party payment companies, there may be survivors because of competitive differentiation.
opportunities, low threshold , the survival rate high, because the policy did not explicitly introduced electronic payment, which makes many companies saw the gap, set foot in this market. They take and pay some of the same treasure, , there are some with the bank credit system to rely on the only The more positive the greater the risk.
as early as 2005, the People's Bank of China had to send a the entry threshold: the establishment of a national payment and settlement organizations, minimum registered capital of 100 million yuan hh People's Bank of China, the development of payment and settlement business and prudential requirements to adjust the minimum registered capital. But since then, the real implementation of the policy does not come out, although some of the new small company into the industry an opportunity, but to the whole electronic payment companies within the industry, there is a delay if the sword does not fall into . In this regard, such Alipay president Shao Xiaofeng interpretation: still actively expand the market, than 1 trillion yuan, the social impact of electronic payments become increasingly important. the from strongly influence market structure, but through the barriers to entry and proof of qualification, will regulate the market, pulled out a number of irregularities, the first time standards. If so, will become operational at present essentially all free of charge, a third-party payment company Transformation of the Recognizing: Urban land and housing prices and the knock is Jiezeeryu Lunzhang, not sustainable. it goes on, developers will inevitably be caught in an embarrassing situation, a dilemma mm as long as no exit, only limited funds to shoot more and more small land, living space is shrinking, the road gets narrower.
and accompanied by shrinking development, is the recent introduction of intensive central control policies and the property market cooling off the pull. Following the State Council, December 9, 2009 ; business tax incentives revealing the management of current concerns about soaring prices.
the face of many adverse and unpredictable factors, the real estate business into a strategic level and core competitiveness level of competition. Not long ago the property was built, SOHO disputes, property disputes of this surface is difficult to solve the problem for years, and a deeper level, the real estate business strategy of selling the bulk caused by the Rental prices have been declining, from the highest rent per square meter of 6 yuan / day fell to 3 yuan / days, a decline of 50%, while the current real estate transaction price of the item price lower than the same area more than 30%. has this The reason for this kind of public, then according to Pan Shiyi, can not ignore the fact that: either office or commercial property, any self-sustaining by the developer, and most able to maintain considerable quality and property services; and sold in bulk to the office or commercial property, is like ;, developers want to control is set up their own property company), but accounts can not be so considered, glorifying the real estate business; In addition, for real estate enterprises, l eat less meat, and bones have to chew on r, the property company had profits of less, but it can be used as the appreciation of asset management. real estate business already in the new roads: Sunshine 100 Group adopted the direct chain of non-controlling mode, the concept of using the clock selected cities, adherence to standards of floor price, specializing in second and third tier cities, the core strategy; Wanda Group to establish a , rent-to-build a trend: real estate business in the enterprise to the management of change and deepen. they have one in common: both are high quality, hot piece of real estate seems to indicate that the era of no advantages, but in the now increasingly complex market environment, but rely on a sound industrial chain, revealing more competitive.
in real estate development as the core of the industry chain, with a few industries are inextricably linked, property, commercial, business, tourism, sports and even medical care, etc., and real estate development of this core is only one step away. and when the development of this part of the profits are extrusion, naturally to the next part of the recent extension of this will be the most representative in 2010 one of the development, and real estate companies according to their different situations, to develop and implement different strategies, and explore their own new model as a core competence, will become the most valuable things to watch in 2010.
car
mobile terminal
car into the largest automotive electronic technology combined with 3G, will be with the trend, as the core area of selling cars.
electronic technology, and the included car vehicle body electronic control technology than the technology of automotive electronic control unit (engine and chassis technology) has a faster pace of change.
temporary bottleneck regardless of the power is in the car, in the 21st century Since the core component mm auto engines, transmissions have almost all electronic, while the steering, suspension, brakes are popular electronics. According to statistics, from 1989 -2000, the average vehicle on the electronic device in the automobile manufacturing cost proportion from 16% to 23% or more. and in 2009, this figure has reached nearly 30%. Some luxury cars, use the number of single-chip micro-computer has reached 50, accounting for vehicle electronics more than 50% of the cost of the current application of electronic technology to the car almost all the systems in depth.
60s from the 20th century, Chrysler invented the electronic ignition, Bosch (Bosch) invented fuel injection, to the late 20th century system Dynamic anti-lock control system (ABS), traction control system (TCS), drive slip control system (ASR) and electronic brake force distribution system (EBD) as standard car; former light, tube radio is on-board electronic device applications, to entertainment systems, navigation systems, vehicle communication systems in the energy revolution escalating mm hesitate, lack of technical innovation and revolutionary materials, today, automotive electronic technology revolution has been completely self-evolution of the automobile industry to become the core competitiveness. Thus, from the market selling point, the entire auto industry will also increasingly inclined to the direction of automotive electronics.
China's car market over the past 10 years of development has gone through several major The pressure testing, a key ignition, automatic parking, the hottest topic in the automotive industry. With the development and application of this technology, the information (traffic information, business information and news), Communication and Operations mm cross-border integration of the three application areas, will make Telematics (Vehicle Information Service ) rapid growth of popularity, it too will become the largest automobile manufacturers in major selling point.
generally believed that, Telematics is a wireless voice and digital communications and satellite-based GPS system, the exchange of information through the car's technology, and By positioning system and wireless communication network, to provide traffic information for drivers and passengers, emergency response, remote vehicle diagnostics and the Internet (financial transactions, news, email, etc.) and other services. Many experts believe that this is the Internet of Things applications in the automotive industry.
more mature in the automotive industry in Japan, the United States and Europe, Telematics applications have been more extensive. OnStar is the world's first vehicle made and applied to business information services company. As General Motors a wholly owned subsidiary, in 1997, GM cars in the Cadillac OnStar's Telematics System is installed. The information service system for the first time the car keys and the three terminals on the GPS satellites, the central information service center connected to each other to form a network to provide traffic briefing, remote vehicle diagnostics, stolen vehicle alarm and tracking, emergency dispatch and other basic services. to the end of 2008, OnStar by General Motors in North American retail vehicle market, almost all standard services, more than 500 million users.
Also, GBOOK Toyota Motor Corporation of Japan since 2001 R & D, 2008, the official listing of intelligent Fujia system is based on the 3G mobile phone network, music, news, traffic and weather reports, stock prices and other information sent to the car terminal information services.
addition to automatic remote diagnostics, emergency call and other functions, in the Telematics system, the most innovative is the key to cut through a call center, the driver can seek traffic information directly to the operator or news and business information to help. The operator will be sent to the car multimedia information on the screen. This not only replaces the cumbersome navigation operations, and the car into a real multimedia platform.
If Telematics is a traditional car free to choose the function item, then the Telematics will inevitably become the core options of new energy vehicles. In fact, the Ministry of Industry has recently issued access standards for new energy vehicles, clearly provides for the use to track the vehicle to appropriate manner, according to the provisions of the proportion of vehicles running on real-time remote monitoring.
2009, Toyota and GM Onstar GBook have launched Telematics Service in China (both with China Telecom). which system equipped GBOOK Lake Lexus RX350, and Feng Tian Xinkai third-generation Camry official visit in China market, signified by the leading automobile manufacturers in China, official business Telematics services.
In addition, in the Chinese market has been its century Navinfo and high-pass and other traffic information service enterprise, and ninety-five thousand one hundred and ninety companies such TSP (Telematics Service Provider) provider. automakers, TSP, and information providers to the downstream force, and marks the era of the Chinese automobile market Telematics coming, and the Chinese auto industry will also be selling cars simply to
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